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Six renowned economists have signed a report saying that the Catalan economy is strong enough to confront "this moment of uncertainty" Catalonia is going through and that it's using very positive signs to develop at a very high rate. The report's authors are six members of Merit of the College of Economists of Catalonia: Andreu Mas-Colell, Salvador Alemany, Carles A. Gasòliba, Joan Hortalà, Guillem López-Casasnovas and Antoni Serra Ramoneda.

The report covers the economy's strengths and weaknesses and its development. It highlights, on one hand, the strong industrial, export, infrastructure and small and medium business components the economy is taking advantage of and the constant growth of Catalonia's GDP.

Economy marked by the political context

The economists say that the good projection and forecasts for the Catalan economy show that it's strong enough to "confront unusual shocks". They believe it important to note that "all societies, through their history, go through moments of uncertainty" but that the important thing is "the ability to confront them", something which they have no doubt Catalonia can do.

Nonetheless, the economy remains scarred by the political crisis, in which stories of companies moving their registered offices out of Catalonia (link in Catalan) have come regularly since 1st October. Despite this, the report notes the strong business fabric which Catalonia is taking advantage of. According to the DIRCE (Central Directory of Businesses) from INE (National Institute of Statistics), business demography grew 2.1% in 2016, the most since 2008, and the number of trading companies has recorded a net increase of 15,753 between January and October 2017. In total, Catalonia has 86 companies for every 1,000 inhabitants, above average for Spain and the largest European countries.

Growth in GDP, industry and exports: positive signs

Catalonia's GDP grew 3.5% in 2016 and is expected to grow 3.2% in 2017. According to the report, this comes from the fourth year in a row of "dynamism", above the average of the whole of Spain and the Eurozone. It also highlights technological improvements, automatisation and robotics as key points for increasing productivity.

Catalonia's industrial tradition is, according to the economists, "a constant which brings strength", and which in the last few years has managed to recover better than the global GDP. In fact, in the third quarter of 2017, Catalan industrial production grew 3.7% year-on-year, 4.3% in October.

Finally, Catalonia's export base has grown strongly in recent years, thanks to the opening of companies and product innovation. Until September 2017, export figures were the best in history, the year is expected to close with 6.1% growth. Standing out are exports of goods with high technological contents. Foreign investment in Catalonia has also reached record figures since 2015 and in the first semester of 2017, year-on-year growth of productive foreign investment has been 20.6%.

Funding, public investment and employment rates: the weak points

The state of the job market is positive, but, according to the economists, "is still insufficient". That said, this November, sign ups for social security have grown 3.6% on the year, and unemployment has decreased 11.4% since January.

On the other hand, they highlight that funding and public investment have been reduced more than would correspond to the economy's level. However, the good rates of the above-mentioned indices have taken place in this context of low funding, due to the obligations to restrain public spending.