With the voting stations now closed in the Spanish state, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the candidate best placed numerically to preside over the Spanish government after the general elections of this Sunday July 23rd, 2023, if the forecast of the election day poll by Catalan public broadcaster TV3 is fulfilled. According to this barometer, the People's Party (PP) could join with Vox and thus lead a Spanish government if the highest and most optimistic estimates for the right-wing bloc given by the survey are confirmed. Thus, the survey places the PP in first place with a range of between 145 to 150 seats in the 350-seat Spanish Congressional chamber. In second position would be the Socialists (PSOE) with 113-118 seats, in third place left-wing Sumar with 28-31 deputies, and in fourth place far-right Vox with 24-27 seats.
As for the three main Catalan pro-independence parties, they would all suffer a decline compared to the 2019 elections if the prognoses of this poll are confirmed. The Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) would tie with 9 seats. However, the poll estimates that the Republicans would take more votes (2.7% ahead of Junts's 2.3%). The CUP could enter the Congress of Deputies: the survey gives it one deputy.
Likewise, this survey predicts that the Basque electorate will place pro-independence EH Bildu ahead of the Basque Nationalists, the PNV, for the first time. Bildu is predicted to send 6 deputies to Madrid, while the PNV would send 5. However, the survey calculates that the PNV would get more votes, with 1.7%; ahead of 1.6%.
A possible scenario with this prognosis at the level of the Spanish state is that of smaller parties, who have already expressed reluctance, refusing to take part in the formation of a government, without exacting a price that is unacceptable to the major parties. The poll suggests that the PP and Vox may be very close to an absolute majority, but without achieving it, which would make it even more complicated for parties like the PNV or Coalición Canaria to lend their votes to Feijóo if he is to govern arm in arm with Vox. On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez may need Junts and the CUP, as well as ERC and Bildu as at present, to stay in the Spanish government. It will be necessary to see how the numbers fall precisely to confirm this situation.
In the previous general election, held in November 2019, the PSOE came first with a total of 120 seats. Unidas Podemos obtained 35. Since the sum of these two parties was not enough for an absolute majority of 176 votes - the usual key to forming a government, they had to form a coalition reaching an accord with pro-independence parties. At that time the pro-independence ERC obtained 13 deputies, Junts won eight (4 of them went to the PDeCAT, when the two parties separated) and the CUP managed to send 2 deputies to Madrid.