Jaime Miquel (born in Madrid, 1959) describes himself as "a data worker" and thanks to this detailed view of public opinion was a pioneer in prophesying the breakdown in the Spanish two-party system. "I devote myself to projecting: with the data we have, what has to happen?" he says twice to explain the profession of the election analyst, which he trained in at the prestigious US pollster Gallup. His theory of the end of the two-party system in Spain is detailed in his book, Perestroika de Felipe VI (in Spanish, "The perestroika of [Spanish king] Felipe VI"), where he attributes the irruption of the Podemos (We Can) and Ciudadanos (Citizens) parties to the generation gap. That is, citizens who have grown up since the end of the Franco regime and the transition to democracy in 1978 have a prefence for emerging parties. But he is not a sociologist, rather he studied Geography and History. A ideal combination to offer a particular vision of what will happen in Catalonia on the same day that PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) presents a battery of measures to try to prevent the referendum, without prime minister Mariano Rajoy.
You often speak about the 'post-Franco' culture in Spain. What does that mean?
The authorities never said to the public that all that of Franco's was a dictatorship and, as such, they couldn't get any kind of benefit from it. The king didn't say this, not the prime minister, nor anyone, so we went from one situation to another with no break. There was a reform with shameful pacts between elites, realised in laws. But it wasn't done by the society, the tale about the "Transition [to democracy]" is false. Anti-Francoism existed, but the objective fact is that the dictator died in his bed and the social multitude was with him.
And what relationship does post-Franco culture have with the Catalan conflict?
The question is that if there is no longer a social nor a territorial consensus, we will have to look for some other consensus. PP (Popular Party) is post-Franco culture and because of that doesn't recognise the subject of Catalan politics. However, PSOE is also post-Franco. Their federal concept is of one nation.
...but the old PSOE guard was defeated. Could it be that PSOE's internal crisis was the example, on a micro scale, that they have started the break with the post-Franco framework?
On the one hand, [former deputy prime minister] Alfonso Guerra, Felipe González [prime minister from 1982 to 1996] are the heavyweights of those shameful pacts that are now falling apart. For example, you can see in the electoral legislation that it favoured alternation between PP and PSOE. On the other hand, the fall is in response to a lack of internal democracy, to wanting to make partisan interests prevail losing votes. Finally, it shows that the system isn't in control any more, that not even one person is right about it. It's the same thing they did with Íñigo Errejón in Vistalegre II [2017 Podemos "conclave" to vote on the party's leadership and direction]: they wanted to break Podemos by creating a supercandidate. This demonstrates that neither the powers-that-be nor the heads of the Ibex [main Spanish stock market index] have any idea now where this behaviour is leading or what is happening. [PSOE leader Pedro] Sánchez prevails because he is a civic hero: everybody goes against him, and he beats them.
The only chance for Pedro Sánchez to be prime minister is 1st October
Will Sánchez use the 1st October referendum to take power?
It's the only opportunity that he has to be prime minister. After the events of October, he absolutely has to distance himself from everything that has happened, because that will be down to the PP. He has to declare the situation unacceptable and present a motion of no confidence. To prosper, this will have to be in exchange for a commission to study the referendum in Catalonia. If not, he won't get ahead. However, another scenario is that life carries on with Rajoy governing and the same legislature.
But the Catalan government assures that this will be the definitive referendum. Why another?
One has already happened and Catalonia is not independent. In real politics things don't happen like that. In real politics, the representative power can say whatever it likes. But there will have to be an agreement between all the parties, since you don't just say here we are and break the contracts.
Sánchez can use the situation to favour negotiation. That's what PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party) insinuated a few weeks ago.
All that is nonsense... I believe that we are heading towards a constituent process. And the independence process will be one of the main factors in the ageing, fall and hasty destruction of the current Spanish system. The one-nation concept of Spain does not support itself, a new coexistence agreement is needed. The new Spanish Constitution will be plurinational, everything has to be revised.
Sánchez has to distance himself from Rajoy after 1st October: present a motion of no confidence in exchange for a commission on the referendum
But PP has a majority in the Senate and will not allow that.
It doesn't matter, Rajoy can be kicked out before the end of the year. And PP will have no options left.
And why do you believe that it's the only chance for PSOE? Can they not reach a majority with Podemos in the next election?
I'm not talking about PSOE, I'm talking about Sánchez. The thing is that PSOE is what I was saying earlier, Alfonso Guerra being head in Madrid for 40 years, Felipe González, [former deputy PM, later PSOE leader Alfredo] Rubalcaba... Because if what the Spanish government does and the following situation embarasses us a lot, we kick them out into the street. It's Sánchez's opportunity, not PSOE's. Sánchez's.
On 1st October there will be a "Quebecisation" of the 'no' vote: the citizens will go to vote regardless of Rajoy and Rivera calling for abstention
And in the face of the fear of ending up alone defending the unity of Spain, what do you believe the Spanish government should do? The aim is to prevent the referendum.
Force is discounted as a way to solve anything, we are in the EU and we've seen how conflicts are solved: Scotland, Brexit... Therefore, I believe that the Spanish government should tiptoe towards 1st October without getting into any messes and let what has to happen happen: let the people vote. There is no way to prevent it. Every time they say "this referendum won't take place" they're making a mistake.
Do you believe that Catalonia can disobey? This week the Referendum law is entering the Parliament and the Spanish cabinet already has the appeal ready.
It can disobey as much as it wants, absolutely as much as it wants. Tell me how they'll prevent people opening the polling stations and citizens depositing their voting slips. You can't prevent people's peaceful self-expression with ballot boxes or with whatever you want. There are no resources to prevent it, not even suspension because that affects politicians. They can suspend [Catalan president Carles] Puigdemont, [vice-president Oriol] Junqueras, etc, but not the people in the street. The question here is that the Catalan institutions have called a referendum and no one can be missing from it.
...some citizen will be missing. The 'no' camp is calling for absention because it doesn't believe in the right to decide.
Mistake. The last [report from] the Catalan government's Centre for Opinion Studies said that this referendum is not agreed [with Madrid] and then asked "what are you thinking of doing?" They give some 55% of PP voters and a similar number of Ciudadanos voters who will go to vote 'no'. This means "Quebecisation" [in the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, turnout was 93.5%]. That is [Catalans are saying] that you from Madrid, misters Rajoy and [Ciudadanos leader Albert] Rivera, can say what you want, because I'm Catalan, above all, and you don't make my leaders go through the stations of the Civil Guard, nor ask them to verify what they spend their budget on, because it humiliates me. Then, if you humiliate the Catalans, we will go to the referendum to vote "no".
The independence process will be one of the main factors in the ageing, fall and hasty destruction of the current Spanish system
I agree, but you know that among the public there might be the expectation that something is politically correct (in this case, saying that you're going to vote), and then [they] say that to seem good to the pollster. The PP has always had a hidden vote, as an example.
The people will not pay attention to the political parties. Let's start with a fact: 8 out of every 10 citizens want to vote, and this is repeated in many surveys. What is missing here is the first party campaigning against [independence], because neither PP nor Ciudadanos will. I think that the 'no' turnout is necessary to legitimise the result.
Catalunya en Comú [Catalonia in Common]...?
In some ways you could say yes. Some [of them] say that whoever wants to vote should, they won't set up obstacles, but others will vote 'no'. And the people of the street will go to vote. However, in regional elections, En Comú don't normally turn out as much as in general elections. So, I don't believe that 'no' will vote in such numbers to legitimise the result, although I hope that turnout will be higher than 2.4 million. It could reach around 3 million. From that point, when the referendum happens, democracy will win. This isn't about "yes" or "no".
The referendum is also taking its toll on Podemos for its credibility in the face of the independence movement.
The thing is that they're right: this referendum is not agreed [with Madrid]. I reject that secessionist argument. Catalonia has ended up seeing a hostile entity in Spain, but this has changed now, it's a generational question.
And how can the "1st October" factor affect PSOE and Podemos, and their communicating vessels, after the referendum?
That depends on what happens in Catalonia and on what Sánchez does. All this about PSOE, either it's true, or it's a joke, but the people will realise.