Spain's CIS public polling agency has this Friday published its electoral barometer for the month of June, in which it maintains current PM Pedro Sánchez as the winner of a Spanish general election and calculates that the sum of the Socialists (PSOE; with 31.2% of the votes), with new left-wing platform Sumar (14.3%) will be greater than that of the People's Party (PP; with 30.7%) and far-right Vox (10.6%). The CIS does not estimate the number of deputies to be won by each party and therefore it is difficult to know how the majorities would fall in Congress. However, given the sum of the PSOE and Sumar, 45.5% of the votes, versus the total of 41.3% for PP and Vox, the Moncloa government palace would be likely to remain in the hands of the current Spanish prime minister. It is a poll that asserts an electoral reality that is rather different not only from that suggested by the recent May 28th municipal and autonomous elections, in which the Socialists took a beating almost everywhere, but also by other polls, almost all of which predict a victory for right-wing PP and far-right Vox.
As for the Catalan pro-independence parties, the CIS calculates that they could suffer another blow at the Spanish snap election on July 23rd. The Catalan Republican Left (ERC) would go from 3.61% of the total Spanish vote in 2019, to just 1.8%; half. Together for Catalonia (Junts) would also worsen its results: from 2.19% to 1.6%, creating a tie with ERC. The left-wing, pro-independence CUP would run the risk of being left out of the Congress of Deputies, since it would go from 1.0% of votes to just 0.5%. As for the Basque independentists, EH Bildu, they would also slip downwards in votes won, although not as much as the Catalans, going from 1.15% of the vote to 1.1%. And their main competitor, the PNV, would also fall from 1.57% to only 1.1%.
It is the first election poll published by the Centre for Sociological Research since the May 28th elections. In those elections, the PP was victorious, obtaining 31% of the votes in the municipal councils over the Spanish state as a whole, as well as winning seven of the twelve autonomous communities that went to the polls that day. The PP finished three percent ahead of the Socialists, and Pedro Sánchez's campaign proved to be ineffective. The importance of those elections is due to the fact that all citizens of the Spanish state were called to the polls, at least in town councils. Even though the public do not follow exactly the same voting logic in a general election as in a municipal one, the 28th May was a test to measure if Feijóo's challenge against Sánchez was working. And the ballot boxes said that it was.
It should also be noted that the CIS's own predictions for the 28th May were way off. Days before the PP swept Spain, the public agency predicted that the PSOE would be the most voted party in the whole state in the municipal elections. Nor did it predict that so many autonomous communities would change colour and end up in the hands of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party. However, it should also be borne in mind that the poll research took place before Sumar swallowed Podemos and when both parties were being worn down by the constant reproaches, even if the poll does present forecasts in which Podemos is part of Sumar's coalition.
What do the other polls say?
To analyze the evolution of voter opinion in the run-up to the 2023 general elections, ElNacional.cat has examined more than a dozen polls published by different media. With the data collected, a chart has been produced showing the forecasts for each poll, as well as a moving average that is updated as new polls are released.
At the moment, the People's Party (PP) leads the polls with more than 33% of the votes on average and a fairly stable trend that does not drop below 30%. The next party is the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), with a little over 25% of the vote, but rising - especially thanks to the latest CIS polls. The third largest party according to the average of all polls - and in disagreement with the CIS - is the far-right party Vox, with more than 14% of the vote - although it could fall short of the results achieved in 2019, when Vox got 15%. The new development on the Spanish political scene for this election is the Sumar coalition, which has opened up a new political scenario since Podemos, Més País and Esquerra Unida and other left-wing formations have decided to join the platform led by current deputy PM Yolanda Díaz. Forecasts indicate that Sumar could get more than 11% of the vote, and could even reach 14% according to the most favourable polls - of which today's CIS survey is one.
Above, our poll of Spanish election polls.
Below, our chart to consult all the Spanish election poll results so far, in predicted vote percentage across Spain, showing the main Spanish parties and Catalan groups.
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