The two main Catalan pro-independence parties Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (JxCat) would tie in an election to the Catalan Parliament, according to the results of the latest survey by Catalan public polling agency CEO, which predicts that ERC will win 33-34 seats (now it has 32) while JxCAT will take 32-33 seats (it now has 34). An election is likely to be held in the next few months.
The third position would go to the Catalan Socialists (PSC), which would rise from the 17 seats they won in 2017 to 24, while Ciudadanos (Cs), who were the largest single party in the 2017 election, would fall to fourth place, from the current total of 36 seats to 19. Fifth position would be for the left-wing Catalunya en Comú-Podem (CeC-Podem) group, which would get 9-10 seats (now it has 8).
As for the smaller parties, pro-independence leftists CUP and pro-Spain rightists PP, currently with 4 seats each, would maintain the tie, but with a rise of both parties, up to 6-7 seats. Finally, the CEO expects far-right Vox to enter Parliament, with 3-4 deputies. The expected turn out would be 70%.
Pro-independence majority
These results would comfortably repeat the pro-independence majority, with a rise from the current 70 seats (with a parliamentary majority requiring 68) to a new total of 71-74 seats by adding the results of ERC, JxCAT and CUP. As for the percentage, the independence parties would reach 47.9 percent, the unionists would capture 40.9 percent, and the CeC-Podem, whose official position on the independence question is non-aligned, would score 8.2 percent of votes.
Main image: Oriol Junqueras and Carles Puigdemont seated side by side on the government benches in the Catalan Parliament in an archive image / ACN