A large majority of Catalans are very clear about it: if a referendum were held on the Spanish monarchy, 69% would vote in favour of the proclamation of a republic. However, the paradox is that 63.1% don't believe that the continuity of the monarchy currently headed by Felipe VI is now in danger. These findings are revealed by a survey conducted by the Institut Feedback for ElNacional.cat on the Catalan public's perception of the Spanish monarchy.
The poll was based on a sample of 800 telephone surveys conducted between June 29th and July 2nd with a margin of error of 3.54%. Carried out at a time when there is strong questioning of the monarchy due to the cases of corruption and a sense of distance between the Spanish royal house and Catalonia, it places the level of support for the continuity of the monarchy in Catalonia at just 19.9%. As well, 3.5% of voters don't know how they would vote in such a referendum and 7.6% say they would not vote in it.
Men, more republican
By gender, the republican option reaches a support level of 70% among men and 68% among women. Only 15.4% of men are in favour of the monarchy continuing; in the case of women it is 24.1%. By age groups, young people aged between 18 and 24 favour a republic most, with 73.1%, while those aged 65 and over are the least supportive: 60.4%.
When compared to the parties which those polled voted for in the Catalan elections of 2017, the republican option in a hypothetical referendum would be a majority among voters of JxCat (96.5%), Catalunya en Comú (94.1%), ERC (89.8%), CUP (88.8%) and PSC (64.8%). Majority support for the monarchist option is only found among 2017 voters of the PP (86.1%), as well as finding favour with 38% of Ciudadanos voters and 32.5% of PSC supporters.
"There will be another 1931", say 33.1%
However, a large majority of respondents don't believe that the Spanish monarchy is in danger. 63.1% stated that they think it will endure. By contrast, 33.1% believe it will end up succumbing to the crisis and there will be a change of political regime as in 1931, when king Alfonso XIII fled the country and the Spanish republic was proclaimed. The remaining 3.8% do not know.
More men surveyed (64.7%) than women (61.6%) believe that the monarchy will continue. And more women (34.1%) than men (32.1%) think that the republic will be proclaimed again. By age groups, 73.2% of those between 45 and 64 believe that the monarchy will resist, while those aged 65 and over are the age group who most believe that a 1931 will be repeated: 45.9% think so. In terms of party preferences in the 2017 Catalan elections, a significant 93.2% of CUP voters believe the monarchy will be saved; and 50.2% of those in Ciudadanos believe it will fall.