Several epidemiologists and experts have criticized the authorities in Catalonia for not taking further action to tighten the restrictions in place for New Year's Eve to deal with Covid-19, given the current state of the pandemic.
On Tuesday, at the press conference following the Catalan government's cabinet meeting, minister Meritxell Budó said that "the health authorities have considered that these are the appropriate restrictions", despite the fact that several voices from the medical and research community have spoken out in favor of hardening them, among them Barcelona Medical Association head Jaume Padrós and Hospital Clínic epidemiology director Antoni Trilla. The former Catalan president, Quim Torra, also called for tougher action to be taken.
Pressure on hospitals
On top of all these criticisms, a further voice has warned about the situation: Catalan epidemiologist Oriol Mitjà, who in a tweet thread asserted that the new British strain, "added to the lack of measures for New Year's Eve, could raise pressure on hospitals to the limit" . According to Mitjà we are getting close to a “disaster”.
@Govern:
— Oriol Mitjà (@oriolmitja) December 30, 2020
L'alta transmissibilitat de la #variant_britànica afegida a la manca de mesures per #Cap_dAny pot portar la tensió hospitalària al límit.
A la 3a onada, famílies perdran gent gran i empreses perdran diners. La Justícia podria ser qui valori les vostres decisions
Translation:
"Catalan government: The high transmissibility of the British variant added to the lack of measures for New Year's Eve could push hospital pressure to the limit. In the 3rd wave, families will lose elderly members and businesses will lose money. It could be the justice system that assesses your decisions."—Oriol Mitjà."
L’alta transmissibilitat de la variant britànica i la manca de mesures de la nit de Cap d'Any ens porten al #desastre.
— Oriol Mitjà (@oriolmitja) December 30, 2020
Passarem ràpidament de 13,000 a 30,000 casos/setmana; de 350 a 600 casos a UCI; i de 200 a 500 morts/setmana a CAT.
In the second tweet, Mitjà added his estimated figures to make the point: "We will quickly go from 13,000 to 30,000 cases a week; from 350 to 600 cases in intensive care; and from 200 to 500 deaths a week in Catolonia."
A new lockdown
Speaking on radio station RAC1, the epidemiologist was convinced that after the Christmas holidays "we will have to go into lockdown again". This new confinement, Media explained, would be "looser than what we experienced last spring."
"With a partial lockdown at the end of January, there should be enough to lower the peak of the pandemic," he told the station.
Mitjà stated that within a few weeks a peak will be reached with greater mortality and tougher restrictions. He asserted that it will greatly affect the elderly and will result in "severe restrictions that will affect the economy." .
The new strain
Regarding the new coronavirus variant first detected in the UK, the Catalan researcher indicated that to stop its spread, vaccination levels would have to be close to 80%: "Some studies have shown that the new strain has more capacity to infect contacts, between 60% and 70% more. It is a 'smarter' and faster strain than the previous one, dominating and occupying the space of the other strains".
As for the effect of the new strain on vaccines, Mitjà assures that those of Pfizer and Moderna - the first two vaccines to reach approval stage in Europe - can be modified quickly in a matter of weeks and that a specific vaccine could be made for a new strain.