It is extremely difficult to understand how Pedro Sánchez could have made such a mistake in the presentation of his candidacy to be prime minister of the Spanish government. He gave a speech that was very far removed from the political reality that seems [at the time of writing] certain to make him PM again, and no matter how much he tries to turn that error around, it will haunt him for as long as he remains in the Moncloa government palace. He is so short of votes to move the legislature forward that he must either reach agreement with the Catalan pro-independence parties, accept the new political framework, come down from the pedestal on which he is installed and show empathy with the partners who are voting for him, or the time that he lasts will be a path strewn with so many obstacles that, at some point, they may become insurmountable. Sánchez will leave Congress this Thursday as prime minister, there is no doubt. But also a little assailed. No doubt of that either. Even his early Wednesday afternoon smile with Feijóo disappeared once the night had come and his face was one of a contained dizziness.
I do not remember an investiture in which two groups so essential and with a representation of 14 MPs made so many warnings to the candidate, Sánchez. In the case of Catalan Republican Left (ERC) spokesperson Gabriel Rufián, in Catalan and Spanish, reminding him that he has no alternative and that he should not gamble. Although, it is also true, Rufián devoted more minutes of his speech to the PP than to Sánchez's Socialists (PSOE). Together for Catalonia (Junts) deputy Míriam Nogueras used her time on the podium to embarrass Sánchez, inject some fear into him - "do you really see yourself as capable of fulfilling what you have signed?" - treating the candidate with contempt and forcing him to say that what took place between the PSOE and Junts was a negotiation and not a dialogue to solve the political conflict. The silence of the chamber, beyond the fact that the deputies who did not understand Catalan, like Pedro Sánchez, wore headsets while the Junts deputy spoke, correlated with the peril of the knives she was tossing at the aspirant. The acting PM got through what was undoubtedly a trance and answered her without responding to her, even being a little hesitant, something unusual for such an experienced parliamentarian, trying to get through the bad moment as best he could.
The day had had its ups and downs between the PSOE and Junts due to the tone of Sánchez's initial utterances in the morning when referring to the amnesty law. As if he wasn't aware of the delicate work that had been done in the initial explanatory statements for that pact and that, knowingly or not, he had undone in the blink of an eye. An amnesty is not a measure of clemency, as he depicted it on several occasions, but a legislative measure. That is a big difference, and obviously, it is not a pardon either. I know that those who for weeks negotiated the fullstops and commas of that explanatory preamble and of the amnesty law measured each of the words precisely so that it would not end up seeming to be what Sánchez said it was.
It would have been very easy to read what is said in the explanatory statements within the draft legislation, but he opted for a lighter version to satisfy his parish, forgetting that maybe, just maybe, he might upset those who are not in his grouping and whose votes he needs. Let's look at the difference. The first three paragraphs of the text entered in Congress says: "Every amnesty is conceived as a legal concept aimed at creating an exception to the application of fully valid laws, when actions that have been declared or are defined as crimes or subject to any other types of responsibility occur in a specific context. This legislative device is configured in the system as an appropriate means to address exceptional political circumstances which, under the rule of law, seeks an outcome that is in the general interest, such as the need to overcome and put on track deep-rooted political and social conflicts, the quest for the improvement of social coexistence and cohesion, as well as for the integration of different political sensibilities. It is, therefore, an institution that articulates a political decision through a law approved by Parliament as an expression of the role granted by the Spanish Constitution to the houses of parliament, established as the body responsible for representing popular sovereignty in the constituted powers and for freely setting out the general will through the exercise of legislative power through the pre-established channels".
What did Sánchez say on the podium? Things like "we are promoting the amnesty because this measure of clemency can help us to overcome the rift that opened on October 1st [2017], to continue bringing our positions closer together, and to persuade many Catalans that Spain is a good country for them. Catalonia is ready for the complete re-encounter and we need to have the courage to step forward." Or "This amnesty is going to benefit many people. Political leaders whose ideas I do not share and whose actions I reject. But it will also help hundreds of citizens who were dragged by the [independence] process. Including police and Mossos who suffered the consequences of a political crisis of which no one can be proud; not even those of us who at that time did not hold any public management responsibilities." To then repeat: "We are promoting this measure of clemency moved by the well-founded hope that it will help us overcome a crisis of which no one can be proud. So that it can contribute to improving the social coexistence of our country and channeling the political aspirations from different quarters in a healthier and more peaceful direction."
This situation even motivated a certain debate in Junts about whether it would not be better to abstain in this first vote and then give a 'yes' in a second vote on Saturday. It is not going to happen, but the legislature has started with tension on the street, tension with the opposition and tension among the parliamentary majority that supports Sánchez. Perhaps, too much tension for everything to go well. Or the reverse: will the PSOE and the pro-independence parties be able to make a virtue of necessity? And not on a theoretical level, but in practice.