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The seismic waves from the overwhelming defeat of the left in the Madrid regional election will have consequences in Catalonia and they will not be good. The logic which the Socialists use in crisis situations will be imposed: from the independence movement, the further away the better. It’s not a slogan, it’s a quote from a senior leader of the Catalan Socialists (PSC) on Tuesday night. There will be no re-strengthening of the self-proclaimed "most progressive government in history" on the left, nor a different view of the Spanish state's territorial questions, much less a solution to the Catalan agenda, which, since it never existed anyway, will have even less of a chance from now on. The PSOE, the Spanish Socialist party, is aiming to contest the centre and not upset any of its territorial barons, as any move it makes in the wrong direction will result in the loss of some territory.

If it makes a move on the pardons for the Catalan prisoners, the party will explode in Pedro Sánchez's hands and, for example, the president of the regional government of Andalusia, Juanma Moreno of the Popular Party (PP), will have as much latitude as Isabel Díaz Ayuso had in Madrid to crush the Socialists in their main centre of support. Not to mention Javier Lambán (president of Aragon) and Emiliano García-Page (Castilla-La Mancha), both Socialists but perfectly interchangeable with those of the PP on the Catalan issue. This weekend will be a revival of latter-day versions of Jose Bono marking the agenda for Sánchez and at some point not far away Felipe González will surely step in to finish the job. You can bet on it.

The blood sloshing around in the PSOE corridors can be easily imagined, knowing the legions of Socialists who have been waiting a long time for Pedro Sánchez to make such a slip-up. It is extremely naive to think that, in the face of this situation, the Spanish PM will do what he has not done so far, when conditions were optimal. Or, if not ingenuousness, it is simply ignorance of how power behaves in Madrid, something that, unfortunately, the current political generation in charge in Catalonia has only known from secretaries' offices, no matter how many mobile numbers they have written down in their diaries or messages they have exchanged. Real power does not flow via Whatsapp.

The Supreme Court, which is part of the power of the state - if not the power of the state - has read the Madrid results well. It has wasted no time in sending twelve court orders, one to each of the convicted Catalan leaders, giving them five days to present a defence of their proposed pardons - explaining their reasons for accepting the pardon that others have asked for on their behalf - which the criminal chamber will use in preparing its report to the Spanish justice ministry on the matter. The exasperating slowness shown so far contrasts with the speed after Ayuso’s overwhelming victory. There is a desire to place the problem on Sánchez's table now.

Although not many hours have passed since the Battle of Madrid, the Spanish agenda will go in a different direction. Ómnium Cultural has read the play well and reiterated that the only possible route is an amnesty... which the PSOE will not accept either. Pedro Sánchez will make the Moncloa government palace into a fortress to keep out paratroopers from the right and critics in his own party, while he hands out money from the European funds. The Catalan independence movement will have to decide how this new game is to be played now that so many things have changed.