Farewell to even the minimal green shoots in the Spanish economy which the Sánchez government spoke of a few days ago. The European Commission (EC) has given a rude awakening to the Spanish executive and in particular frivolities such as those of finance minister María Jesús Montero, who not so long ago allowed herself to say that the worst was over for the Spanish economy, and she is still in office. According to the EC, Spain will give the worst economic performance on the continent for 2020, with GDP collapsing by 12.4%, the only country to have a double-digit fall. Unemployment will exceed that of Greece and will reach almost 18% and, in the best case scenario, the Spanish economy will return in 2023 to a situation similar to that of last year. We have difficult years ahead, because what has been lost in 2020 will cost more than expected to recover, because the blow to the key pillars of the economy, especially tourism, has devastating consequences, and this situation will go on for months before even minimal pick-up begins.
And this, assuming that the expectations for a vaccine in which so much confidence is placed by the scientific community, governments and public, end up bearing fruit, and the situation of territorial and temporary lockdowns does not end up turning into something much worse and being dangerously prolonged into 2021. The daily data that is being reported on the situation of Covid-19 offers a small amount of hope in Catalonia and a little less in Spain. So much so, in fact, that the Catalan government is beginning to consider that the current measures could be eased in about ten to fifteen days, an opinion that is not contemplated in other parts of the state, where the curve continues to rise dangerously. In fact, the economic deterioration of almost two points since July reflects the fact that the foundations of the Spanish economy are less solid, the recovery slower, the measures taken very debatable and the ability to inject resources to alleviate the situation, very scarce.
In the end, the fall of Spain's economy will be almost five points worse than the European Union average, seven points more than Germany, 3.5 per cent more than Portugal, 3.4 more than Greece, 3 points more than France and 2.5 per cent points more than Italy, to name a range of different countries. The second wave of the pandemic has seen a decline in the Spanish economy very different from the calculations made in early summer, when there was an at-all-costs attempt to save the summer season, something that had a minimal effect on domestic tourism only and has forced a lot of furlough assistance to be maintained and funds to be provided to prevent the workers concerned from going directly to the ranks of the unemployed. The 140 billion euros that Spain will end up receiving from Europe, some of it as aid and the rest as credit, will arrive later than expected, and be very much oriented to making changes in the direction of the economy rather than meeting immediate needs.
In the coming weeks we will have to accustom ourselves to announcements of new furlough assistance or directly of layoffs in major companies, affecting thousands of workers. All this combined with the closure of small and medium-sized businesses and the disappearance of freelancers. It is not true, as minister Montero said, that the worst is over. The worst always ends up being, not the macroeconomic picture, but the individual people, and sadly the worst is yet to come.