A survey of electoral support which appears just one month after an election with as high a turnout as the Catalan vote on 21st December is of limited interest. Above all because the real survey, with real participation, was held just a matter of weeks ago. Why then, the reader may ask, do I choose to speak about it? Fundamentally, because of the rapturous response that unionist quarters have given to the fact that a study carried out by the CEO, the Catalan government's own survey body, shows support for Catalan independence falling by eight points to a total of just 40.8%; and the percentage who say no to independence has risen ten points, reaching 53.9%. On this occasion, the CEO, much-maligned by unionist forces for supposedly being on a pro-independence leash, has suddenly become reliable. It is, in any case, welcome that the official Catalan survey organization is receiving some deserved recognition, whatever data it is offering.
And with that introduction I offer my own conclusions on the CEO's first survey of the political context in Catalonia for 2018, based on interviews carried out from 10th-30th January and with a sample of 1,200 respondents.
First: To put it bluntly, and borrow a term popularised by those who are opposed to the independence process, the soufflé has not fallen. There is no sign of retrograde movement by those who won the Catalan elections on 21st December and, in any case, the survey does not suggest this. The survey's electoral prediction of between 69 and 74 deputies does not imply any risk to the independence movement's parliamentary majority, which requires 68 seats, and indeed, could offer an improvement on the 70 seats won in December. The survey finds that on this occasion, the ERC (Catalan Republican Left) would prevail over the JuntsXCat (Together for Catalonia) list, and this is something which certainly could happen, but not because the survey says so, rather because the election ended up with a three-way tie between the two largest pro-independence groups and the unionist Cs (Citizens).
Second: for some time, the CEO has not provided provincial breakdowns of its predictions and this is a severe drawback when working out how many seats will be won in each of the Catalan provinces. Especially given the extreme situations that applied to two of them, Girona and Lleida, where Puigdemont's margin of victory was very ample, with a margin of four seats over the ERC and six over Cs.
Third: the sample base differs significantly from the real result generated. This can easily occur and it affects the direct voting intention revealed. For this reason, there are correction mechanisms which every survey company has well worked out. But in this case, the difference is particularly radical when those polled are asked to recall how they voted in the real election, on 21st December.
Fourth: when theoretical voters for ERC and JxCat are asked about their support for independence, there is no closing of ranks between them. Tactical support for independence, which is responsible for a certain level of support for the independence parties, is a little lower in this survey. But it cannot be deduced what these voters would do in a referendum if the state ended up authorizing it. The only thing we know is that these citizens vote for the independence block parties - not for the unionists, nor for the Commons which holds a wedge of votes between the two large blocks.
Summing up, there are no real changes beyond the headlines in the CEO survey, which moreover was carried out in January when the formation of the new Catalan government looked like it would be as easy as pie.