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You just have to take a walk around Madrid to conclude that if there's a chance to bring Pedro Sánchez's candidacy for prime minister crashing down there's a lot of people interested in taking part in the operation. The more than possible agreement between PSOE-Podemos and Esquerra is causing more than one headache on the other side of the Ebro and what you hear most are sentences of the type: "Sánchez is willing to do anything to get this alliance to go ahead... but there's still time". Whilst that's happening, not a day goes by without former leaders of all stripes and all kinds taking to the ring to try to avoid the pact whilst calling for a grand agreement between PSOE and PP. They're using all manner of platforms to do so and all manner of slights and insults. At their head, like almost every time, Alfonso Guerra, who has indicated that an agreement between PSOE and Esquerra would be like giving "a grenade to a child".

Others, the important ones, those truly in control, don't make statements and influence front pages and editorials. It's not strange that this climate contrary to the acting prime minister should have him worried, since the calendar isn't to his advantage. The investiture today looks more likely for January than December, and January is too far away whilst the daily refrain is that Sánchez is giving himself over to communists and independence supporters. That's how we have to understand the pressure on ERC, who knows whether it was sought for or not, who left their meeting with the PSOE delegation this Tuesday in Madrid more than satisfied and with an agreement of maximum discretion and who this Wednesday found Sánchez declaring from London that the agreement will be within the Constitution and that it will be public. Too many clues for those who are still in the phase of establishing a climate of trust to allow them to move from "no" to abstention.

The thing is that ERC doesn't want to rush, they're demanding PSOE make a genuine move and are looking for their leader, incarcerated in Lledoners prison and with a long sentence from the Supreme Court, to also be a political actor in this negotiation. Among other reasons, because it's obvious that Junqueras forms part of the governability equation that Sánchez has already accepted. The visit by the secretaries general of unions CCOO and UGT to Lledoners last week is in response to this recognition of the pre-eminent role of the imprisoned vice-president. At heart, ERC is looking to make visible a negotiating triangle: Junqueras in Lledoners, Pere Aragonès as the vice president of Catalonia and leading the party, and Gabriel Rufián, Marta Vilalta and Josep Maria Jové in the daily struggle for the agreement.

But ERC, unlike Sánchez, knows that December is a dangerous month for it, since ahead are political and legal hurdles which leave it with almost no leeway to make progress on the foundations of the investiture. Among other things, a congress it's best not to mess around with.