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Three and a half weeks have now gone by since the anomalous election of December 21st, when an absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament was won by the three pro-independence candidatures of Together for Catalonia (JuntsXCat), Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP). A result, winning 70 seats out of 135, which was also accompanied by a voter turnout that can be considered exceptional, since in no previous election had 80% of registered voters cast a ballot. If we add that the elections were called by Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, that Catalonia's self-government was and is, in practice, suspended, and, moreover, that the Spanish government has tried by all means at its disposal to prevent the repetition of the parliamentary majority that had existed since 2015, the political value of the result achieved on 21st December is not only excellent, but furthermore, must be preserved.

Having made this necessary assertion, and given that everyone - the opposition as well - supposes that this political coalition is the one that has to govern Catalonia for the next four years, the key is what course must be steered in the legislature that officially begins this Wednesday in Parliament, which must be as stable as possible and must, in the shortest possible time frame, lead to a Catalan government that begins to restore the policy-making that is now paralyzed. With the understanding that its stability and duration will depend on multiple factors, some internal and many external. And that, in any case, it will not be a time of democratic normality, since exile, prison and judicial processes will accompany the legislature, and the Supreme Court will end up affecting the day-to-day activity of the government that is constituted.

At present, JuntsXCat and ERC have a good base for agreement in the pre-accord reached a few days ago in Brussels between Carles Puigdemont and Marta Rovira. Under this accord, ERC would have charge of the speaker's position in Parliament, as in the last legislature with Carme Forcadell, while JuntsXCat, that is to say, Puigdemont, would receive the support of ERC to be invested as president of Catalonia.

Consequently, Carles Puigdemont has the three conditions necessary to attempt to be invested as president in the Catalan chamber: historical legitimacy, as it is he who was the president dismissed by article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, the Spanish Government and Mariano Rajoy; secondly, the status of being winner among the pro-independence block on 21st December; and finally, the support of ERC, which, together with that of the CUP, guarantees an absolute majority in Parliament. There may be doubts, but all this will become clear when a new speaker has been appointed to the Catalan legislature and the mandatory round of talks with other parliamentary groups are formalized.

Thus, if this is the case, and no one can deny that it is so, why should Carles Puigdemont abandon the idea of going to the investiture and attempting to put into practice what Catalans mandated with their votes?

It is obvious that it is an uncertain investiture. If Puigdemont physically returns to Barcelona he will be arrested immediately, and if any other formula is used, it will probably be rejected, perhaps even by Parliament's legal counsel. In addition, other impediments no less important - who knows - could coalesce: ranging from a Constitutional Court decision prohibiting the holding of the session or annulling the decisions adopted by Parliament, to a hypothetical refusal by the head of the Spanish state to accept the appointment.

But all this, at the moment, is inventing hypothetical problems and trying to cross bridges before they are reached, and at present is only based on the public statements made. When the investiture actually begins, there will be real elements, not just statements that are calculated to support an interest and, in many cases, to exert pressure.

Two last thoughts: the decision by the Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena to deny Oriol Junqueras his request to temporarily leave Estremera prison to attend the opening session of the twelfth Catalan legislature and the election of the new parliamentary speaker and, later, the investiture session, claiming a right that is explicitly recognized in the Constitution and which has precedents in the case of a Herri Batasuna parliamentarian linked to ETA, is, in terms of gestures, more important than it seems: it shows that there will be no judicial truce.

Legislation designed for the fight against terrorism will be applied to the Catalan independence movement, the annual peaceful demonstrations on September 11th will end up being considered unacceptable pressure on the state and, as has been seen, the Spanish police will blame the passivity of the Catalan Mossos force for the violence of October 1st. A complete fake news narrative based on one lie after another. In addition, once the judicial machinery has been put into operation, sudden changes should not be expected. The Junqueras decision is extendable to cover the other two imprisoned MPs-elect, Jordi Sánchez and Joaquim Forn.

Thus, a Supreme Court trial of all the political leaders - members of the Catalan government and office holders of the pro-independence parties - as well as the two key pro-independence civil organistions, the ANC and Òmnium - must be envisaged as likely during the next year.

A second reflection: in the composition of the new Catalan government, general restrictions must not be made that limit members affected by judicial processes. The situation is so anomalous that it is better for each case to be analyzed on its own merits, taking account of each individual's personal situation, the cohesion of the new government, the experience and knowledge that each person could contribute. In any case, it is obvious that a trial and subsequent sentence, if convicted, would force changes to be made. But at present, these are not on the agenda either.