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The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and the leader of the Podemos party, Pablo Iglesias, have concluded an agreement on the Spanish government budget for 2019 with all the pomp required for the occasion at the government palace, the Moncloa. Even though it is the first serious agreement reached between Spain's main two left-of-centre political forces, and is not over a minor issue but rather the annual budget, its revenue and its spending, the necessary debate on the matter cannot avoid four key premises: there is no majority to vote the budget through in the Spanish parliament without the support of the Catalan pro-independence parties. The star measure ― the introduction of a 900 euro minimum wage as foreseen in the draft ― is a welcome and necessary move, but it does not have to affect the vote of the two Catalan groups, Together for Catalonia (JxCat) and Republican Left (ERC), as it could just as easily be adopted through a separate parliamentary vote.

In third place, the bait of an additional budgeted investment in Catalonia of 2.2 billion euros is a new enticement similar to those made in recent years, as previously offered by Aznar, Zapatero and Rajoy and their respective finance and public works ministers. If new revenue for Catalonia is to be discussed, its starting point should be the chronic fiscal deficit and not some hypothetical offers which, in the best of cases, will be added to public accounts and afterwards never entirely executed. Finally, there is the subject of the exiles and political prisoners and the Spanish government's failure to present the plan it has for Catalonia, which cannot continue to be trying to gain time. And all that without mentioning the disdainful attitude of the Spanish government to its Catalan counterpart this week when it prevented Catalonia's president Quim Torra from taking part in the EU's Union for the Mediterranean forum this week, which was held in Barcelona and which even Mariano Rajoy's government allowed the Catalan government access to in 2017, when president Carles Puigdemont addressed the representatives of 41 countries.

It is obvious that Pedro Sánchez knows how important the budget is for him and that its passage through the Spanish Congress would, fundamentally, amount to a kind of blank cheque to carry on with the legislature until the end.

A contrary outcome would lead, sooner or later, to the dissolution of parliament and an early election. So, the cards are on the table. And, for the time being, there is no political incentive to pass the budget. The Spanish government should know that it is a long way from having the support of the pro-independence parties. And that this time there will be no blank cheques.