This week will see the passing of the one hundredth day since the start of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops and which, among its tragic consequences, has provoked the most serious refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, causing over six million people to flee, according to figures updated by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. Although it is very difficult to know the number of civilian deaths, the United Nations has verified more than 4,000, and a figure of about 5,000 injured. Of the dead, the number of children whose lives have been lost is close to 300.
In addition to this tragic balance in human lives and those driven from their homes, we must add the destruction caused by Russian troops across a large part of Ukrainian territory. If these are the main military consequences of the Russian invasion, the prolongation of the fighting has also brought considerable economic and financial consequences to the entire planet, ranging from a complex food situation caused by shortages of basic products such as cereals, to the conflict centred on Russian gas whose supply to several countries has already been cut. There have also been key historical moments in world geopolitics with the application for NATO membership from northern European countries.
The world economy is suffering from the conflict as Vladimir Putin is waging a war of attrition against Ukrainian positions, after he failed in his attempt at a rapid conflict, which woulkd have required the surrender without a struggle of the Ukrainians. After losing this battle and with a considerable level of widespread ignorance about what was really happening on the ground, European leaders, the United States, NATO, the European Commission and the United Nations all seem to have adapted to a conflict that could last for many months. And worst of all, much of it has disappeared from the highest-profile media reports despite the serious consequences it is having, first and foremost for Ukrainians, but also for the West.
GDP growth forecasts for this year and next have had to be adjusted by both the IMF and the OECD twice in the five months of 2022 that have gone by. With this harsh outlook in the short and medium term, the first conclusion should be greater implication of the West in Ukraine. If at first some thought that Russia would be immobilized by the restrictions imposed on it, both economic and financial, this has not happened. Or at least it hasn't to the degree of forcing negotiation and withdrawal.
It is not at all certain that, once Putin lost the benefits of the surprise factor, the Russians have now internalized that they are not the only ones who have a lot to lose. The fact that no serious negotiations have taken place to end the armed conflict shows great impotence on the part of Europe and the United States. And also something slightly more troubling: the lack of recognized and recognizable leadership. Without such leaders, everything is much more difficult and will probably lead us to an inevitably long conflict.