Another bath of pessimism for the Spanish economy from an international body, in this case, the OECD. Its forecasts demolish the government numbers in all areas and put paid to any hint of optimism as Spain waits for the executive led by Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias to tell the truth to the public about what is to come. I will merely quote a few figures from the OECD simulations for the end of this year: a fall in GDP of up to 14%, placing Spain at the forefront of the economic collapse, and the G20 country that will be most affected if there is a "double hit" from Covid-19 resurgence in the autumn; the country that stands out as the leader in unemployment, which might reach 25%, without counting the ERTO furlough schmes; an increase in public deficit from 2.8% at the end of last year to 12.5% in the most pessimistic scenario, while public debt would jump from 95.5% in 2019 to an alarming 129.5%. Spain will suffer the gravest recession in the industrialized world and its GDP has already collapsed by 23.3% since the beginning of the crisis.
With this data, which is no more than a simulation of what might happen, there are basically three things that can be done. The first is to avoid a resurgence of coronavirus at all costs. Extreme diligence is needed in locating focuses of contagion that may occur, and for people not to lower their guard despite the obvious exhaustion resulting from the health restrictions. Especially because, in a country so dependent on tourism (and here is the second key), it is necessary to open the doors to the arrival of visitors, but it is undeniable that the risk will then increase, inevitably. The same goes for the services sector, the third vector of the equation. Tourism and services have in common that physical contact is more direct, but like the fish that eats its own tail, without them the decline of the economy would be really unendurable, and not just for years, but who knows, maybe for a decade or two.
Spain is not the only state that is approaching a real crossroads - France and Italy are not far behind, and the United Kingdom too. Although, in the last-mentioned case, being outside the umbrella of the European Union, it will have to make its own decisions. Spain, France and Italy are in the same boat and are second-class passengers waiting for those on the upper decks to decide what to do with those who can no longer make ends meet. We will have to wait and see what the final translation looks like of Brussels's expressed will to create a large rescue fund - above all, the fine print of the deal, which, in the end, always ends up as the important part. The fact that Europe is always very slow in all its decisions and the results will not begin to be noticed until next year may be the prelude to an especially hot autumn, with companies disappearing and others not reopening, turning workers on ERTOs directly into jobless citizens.
The OECD says that it was commerce that suffered the biggest decline in all countries during lockdown and that should make us think. Because one thing is the propaganda and the millions spent on this stupid campaign of Salimos más fuertes - "We're coming out stronger" - and another the reality of the endless queues of people simply looking for food that are already longer than at the most critical moments of previous crises.