One of the most sordid things about politics are the negotiations that take place behind closed doors when one has become a nuisance. And I imagine that, at this point, no one doubts that the former Socialist (PSOE) minister José Luis Ábalos is more than just a thorn in Pedro Sánchez's side. The Spanish prime minister must be regretting not having made a clean break in July 2021, when he unexpectedly sacked his until-then head of transport, mobility and urban agenda, and then, the following week, also dismissed him as organizational secretary of the PSOE. Maybe he couldn't, but even then it was more than a rumour that Ábalos was carrying too much ballast and, in a low voice, it was leaked from the Moncloa palace that the PM had had to take a hard line with his old friend. When he appeared again on the electoral lists last July, there were already those who frowned when he was placed in second position for València behind minister Diana Morant.
Now that the case of his former right-hand man Koldo García has exploded, that dismissal of Ábalos can be understood. And it seems inexplicable that a lawyer had warned Pedro Sánchez about the corruption plot centred on creaming off illegal commissions from the sale of masks during the Covid pandemic. Now everything has to be done rapidly and Ábalos has become a problem and a big one. It began with the party opening the exit door for the former minister and ended up with them demanding that he resign from his MP's seat within 24 hours, which was due to expire this Tuesday morning. For now, he is resisting and has made a show of giving in a little by resigning from the presidency of a congressional committee, which, to make matters worse, was supposed to address a session on corruption and impunity this Wednesday. I suppose it would have added insult to injury and that embarrassment was something he didn't want.
The PSOE needs to move energetically in order not to get trapped in the mire of corruption and to do so it urgently needs Ábalos's head. There must be people who are negotiating a way out with him, but the former minister, who is a wily fox, must want a real commitment, not promises which he already knows for sure he will not be able to collect on. If he does not obtain them, he can hang on in his seat with the consequent loss of authority for Sánchez, who, to date, has won all the battles within the party. This would be the first to withstand his efforts. But if Ábalos keeps up the challenge, he could last a year, since between the exposition of the case, the request to lift his immunity and various parliamentary procedures, by the time he testifies before a judge, twelve months may have passed. It is obvious that the PSOE cannot allow this under any circumstances and will engage another gear to overcome it.
The PSOE needs to move energetically in order not to get trapped in the mire of corruption and to do so it urgently needs Ábalos's head
In any case, at the Moncloa government palace, they already know that, whether Ábalos is made to move or not, it will be putting a band-aid on a judicial case that will end up having Sánchez himself as the last stop. It has taken a long time to happen, but the parliamentary agreements reached after the July election do not pass the filter of Spain's deep state and for the first since Adolfo Suárez's era we are witnessing a struggle between the government and the deep state. The bugle call went out last November with those statements by José María Aznar appealing to "those who can do something, let them do it." A few days later, Felipe VI appeared looking serious. Even the monarchist newspaper La Razón noted it, with these words: "The long face, reflected in the serious, almost somber expression, was clearly visible in the Zarzuela palace, on the occasion of the ceremony at which, once again, Pedro Sánchez was sworn-in and took possession of the leadership of the government. That November 17th, the monarch 'wanted' to be seen as serious, circumspect, without any smile on his face. Almost tense. And that is how he was perceived in general. It was very clear how the king felt".
Nothing has changed since that November, and Pedro Sánchez is noticing how the screws are tightening. I suppose. The question is how do you drop some ballast, when you know it is you they are coming to get? He doesn't have an easy answer, but if one thing is certain, it is that without the amnesty and a budget, he can already pack his bags. Because his options of doing another somersault like he managed last July are non-existent.