The latest survey prepared by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), released this Wednesday, offers a disappointing snapshot of the main leaders of the Catalan political parties. None of them are given a pass mark, none of them make the grade for Catalans: they all get a thumbs down. The fact that it is not the first time this has happened should not serve as an explanation either, but rather, on the contrary, such a rejection, in any of activity in life and much more so in public affairs, shows disaffection and anger over the way things are being done. The generalized fail grades awarded to the leaders who appeared in the questionnaire also reflect the current political moment and the absence of clear leaderships in Catalonia that can fill the current void and receive transversal recognition from the voters of the different political options.
In part, it is the effect that has resulted from the tension we have at present and, in the pro-independence camp, of the break between the Republican Left (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts), which has been accompanied by a great uproar and serious accusations. Because there is another particularly interesting fact, too: the fight within the independence movement consolidates the first secretary of the Catalan Socialists (PSC) and head of the opposition, Salvador Illa, as the winner of a Catalan election in the event that the vote was held now. Illa has an increasingly solid lead in the polls and the pro-independence parties wouldn't have the numbers to govern even if they were able to come together. This data, as we enter the second half of the legislature, demonstrates their political ineptitude and an inability to turn around the results of February 2021 that already consecrated the PSC as the leader, with ERC second and Junts third.
ERC is not capitalizing on its work in government nor has it managed to push president Pere Aragonès to a pass mark, as he is left with a grade of 4.5 out of 10 and gets a fail from voters of all political forces except for his own party, who grant him a 6.2 but a point less than Oriol Junqueras, who is awarded a 7.2. On the Junts side, exiled president Puigdemont remains with a 4 and current party president Laura Borràs with 3.7, while they obtain good ratings among Junts's own voters, 8.4 and 7 respectively. The party's third position, as measured by the poll, in hypothetical Catalan elections, with results significantly worse than in 2021, should concern them and prompt the question of why their candidate Xavier Trias has options to conquer the mayoralty of Barcelona and yet Junts does not manage to get off the ground when the poll is at the level of Catalonia. Perhaps the answer lies in actions as surreal and incomprehensible as asking that Laura Borràs be restored to the speakership of Parliament after having been sentenced to four years in prison and a 13 year ban on office by the Catalan High Court.
The retort that Illa would come first in an election but be unable to govern is losing strength poll by poll. First, because although the range contained in the CEO survey's prediction, which is very broad, runs from a minimum of 59 seats for the pro-independence parties and a maximum of 74, an average would leave them at around 66 parliamentarians, two less than the absolute majority they need. Secondly, there is the fact that the political and also emotional rupture between ERC and Junts brings them both closer to the PSC than to repeating a pro-independence coalition. Today they all deny it, but it's easy to detect this in both parties when they don't have a microphone in front of them that to record statements. The Socialists, just as they may form parliamentary majorities, could also form government majorities.