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Goldman Sachs, one of the world's largest investment banks, has published a report which takes it for granted that there will be a referendum in Catalonia on 1st October and that the pro-independence side will win a clear victory.

Despite this, the report predicts that the referendum's turnout will be lower than in other elections, due to the abstentionist position of the supporters of the 'no' vote and logistical problems. It believes that this will force negotiation between Mariano Rajoy's Spanish government and Carles Puigdemont's Catalan one. In fact, Goldman Sachs "expects" that the result's legitimacy would be "doubtful" for these problems.

Goldman Sachs, as a solution to the conflict, bets on applying a federal model in the Spanish state, but one which noticeably increases Catalonia's level of autonomy, reinvesting the centralising tendencies seen since 2010 and moving closer to the situation of an independent state. The investment bank expresses worry that the political instability might have negative repercussions for the Spanish and Catalan economies and might effect the economic recovery and the risk premium.

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