With little over a month to go to the 21st December Catalan Parliament elections and all the candidacies to stand announced, we also have the first election poll, published by Spanish newspaper El Periódico, with five key points.
First, the pro-independence bloc will again hold an absolute majority in the Catalan chamber, with between 68 and 71 of the 135 deputies. If this turns out to be the case, the pro-union bloc will be well chastised, as the eviction of the government carried out by PP (Popular Party), PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) and Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the temporary suppression of autonomy will have returned Catalan politics to the starting point. The independence movement would once again be the largest force in Catalan politics and able to withstand the worst attacks. And then what, Misters Mariano Rajoy, Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera?
Second conclusion: ERC (Catalan Republican Left) maintains a clear advantage with their first place not currently at risk, at an expectation of between 37 and 38 seats. It's true that they've lost some momentum, but being up for election without their main politician active, vice-president Oriol Junqueras, is an almost titanic task. Modern politics is strongly based on voters having individuals as reference points, and Junqueras is in preventive detention alongside half the Catalan government in Estremera prison near Madrid. The party's secretary general, Marta Rovira, clearly brings new things to the campaign, but the image of Junqueras is logically much more complete for the electorate.
Third: Puigdemont's candidacy has started strongly, but how it develops from here is still unknown. The simple fact that he heads a list called Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) and has been able to move beyond his party, PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party), and, to the surprise of almost everyone, put together a very broad electoral list, increases expectations of but doesn't guarantee him a very good result. That will depend on their messaging, on their campaign model and on the candidacy taking root strongly and credibly. If worst comes to worst, they've already entered the field and in second place, abandoning the pit PDeCAT was in before Puigdemont got deeply involved and distanced the party and its leaders from his command centre.
Fourth: PSOE and Ciudadanos appear to be fighting for second place with Junts per Catalunya. In fact, the poll gives all three the same predicted range of deputies, 24 to 25. The cases of comuns (Commons) and PP are especially significant. The first, the party of Ada Colau and Xavier Domènech, will go from 11 deputies to 9 or 10. This being confirmed at the ballot box would be, without a doubt, a penalty for their policy of maintaining equal distance between the two sides which hasn't given anything credible to Catalan politics. Much bloodier will be the case of PP, who the survey puts in last place with an expectation of 6 or 7 seats compared with the 10 they have now. This would be a serious slap in the face for Mariano Rajoy and his intransigent position in Catalonia.
Fifth: CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy), with 7 or 8 seats compared with their 10 in 2015, would resist. And again would be essential for the pro-independence majority, something which for sure neither Puigdemont nor Junqueras want.
Sixth and finally: with so much time before the elections and such an atypical campaign, let's react proportionally to the polls. The emotional factor is going to be more present than ever. Also the opposition to article 155 and the police violence during the 1st October referendum. It's also important to know whether the members of the government currently in prison and the Jordis will be freed and able to campaign normally. All of these are very important factors for the 21st December and, surely, prudence will be more necessary than ever.