Ramon Tremosa (Barcelona, 30 June 1965) is an MEP for the Catalan liberal centre-right PDeCAT party and the European Parliament ALDE group's economic coordinator. In the context of a visit organised by the Catalans Lliures (Free Catalans) platform, he welcomes us at his office in Brussels. Before going in, we stop in front of a poster which reads, amongst other things, that “Catalan is the 19th most widely used language on Twitter.” This is not casual, but critical, since despite many promises, the use of Catalan in the European Parliament is not allowed. A little further down is a collage of Catalan brands. We go into the office and we find anything from posters from the massive National Diada Day demonstrations on the 11th of September, to stacks of books such as historical novels Victus or Uncertain Glory, in all sorts of languages, received as gifts or ready to be given away. We start right off with the view of the European institutions on the Catalan process.
The Catalan issue is not on the European political agenda. Is it at least in the corridors of power?
It is very present. Partly because of so many years’ consecutive massive, interclass, intergenerational, festive demonstrations. We have political tourism—I could name many MEPs who come to the Diada demonstrations because they want to be at the One Million March. And partly because they see that in the six elections held in Catalonia in the last four and a half years, the pro-independence parties have won them all, while the Spanish parties are at historic lows in Catalonia.
Many MEPs come to the Diada demonstrations because they want to be at the One Million March
And what’s their view of the frustrated votes?
Look, when they ask me what we are going to do in the midterm, if we can’t manage to get our way, I always show them the CIS Spanish public research institute surveys. The young show a considerable preference for independence. Likewise the better educated classes. And further, I show them surveys on the preference of territorial models by region, and they see that in the rest of Spain they prefer greater centralisation.
The social mix makes it very difficult for a strong Spanish leader to say: “I will give you a strong federal state like Germany in exchange for eschewing independence.” Europe is gradually discovering that Spanish diplomacy has been lying to them. They said that there would be violence as the process progressed and it was false. They said that when there was an 80% turnout they would win by a mile, and that was also false.
But do they go from getting information to taking a position?
No. You need to take into account that Spanish diplomacy is very aggressive. Just an example: when Croatia joined the EU, the treaty had to be modified so that Croatian could be made an official language, and I wanted to table an amendment to make Catalan official too. To formalise it, they demanded 25 members from the committee—which is very strange, because they are never asked. And then they still declared it illegal. Vytautas Landsbergis, the first President of Lithuania after independence, did not want to sign. He said: “With all my sympathy, but if you want to speak Catalan here, this is a club of states and you need to solve this in your country. I know what the Spaniards are like, they’re like the Russians. I don’t want reprisals for Lithuania because of we give you support.”
Spanish diplomacy is very aggressive
Realpolitik everywhere.
Sure. But little by little, the situation is taking on new directions. In the talk by President Puigdemont, 40 Members of the European Parliament came openly. Spain’s PP MEP Esteban González-Pons said that only MEPs from the Front National and the Five Star Movement would come. But lo and behold, many came from the main groups. And others sent their assistants because they received emails asking them not to go.
And despite all the stumbling blocks, it was a great success. The hasthag #catalanreferendum had six million hits. That is why, after 36 hours, the unionist press uncovered the Vidal case to completely change the story.
What can we expect from the different countries?
Look, in 2014 the [governing] Partido Popular (PP) set up a debate to counteract the conference that we had held on the referendum in October. There were thirty people in total, and all Spaniards— PP (conservatives), PSOE (socialists), and Cs and UPyD (liberal-nationalists). At that debate, (MEP) Luis de Grandes said: “We are losing the battle before international public opinion.” And a New York Times editorial just confirmed it, because no one is swallowing the narrative of “The referendum is a coup d'état and is illegal.” They are saying that there is a democratic issue, that the Catalans are mistreated and PM Rajoy is negotiating in ill faith. That the NYT is saying that is the bomb.
Post-Francoism now means the vote of most Catalans is not worth anything
And what are they swallowing now?
That voting is valid, in Europe, we see it every day. As long as the Catalans voted for Spanish parties, there was no problem. But now there is a majority of Catalans who want to change the legal framework, so now they say: your vote is not worth anything. That’s Post-Francoism (the political heritage of Gen. Franco’s dictatorship). And there is no longer any international context where this is accepted. Scotland votes on independence, the Netherlands and France reject the European Commission, Sweden refuses to enter the euro twice... and no problem. There is even a Finnish liberal Centre Party member of parliament, who spends every day holding talks against the euro, in favour of going back to the Finnish currency, arguing “we do not want to pay for the rescues that will go to southern Europe, Sweden’s better off without the euro.” That’s the European democratic heritage.
What’s more, the “27-S” parliamentary election on the 27th September 2015 had its effects. The New Flemish Alliance party said “the [Spanish] government will blow to pieces if Catalonia is not recognised.” That was a bomb. But since the political debate in Catalonia has been kidnapped by the dictates from Madrid, they always set the agenda, these things go unheard.
At the headquarters of the German liberal foundation, much has been said of respecting the legal framework.
In Germany they are very strait-laced with that. Wars and borders are a total trauma to them. They do not want any messes and they already have enough problems with the banking union. Even so, a year and a half ago, a delegation from the Bundestag came to the Parliament of Catalonia to hold meetings, take notes and interview everyone.
the political debate in Catalonia has been kidnapped by the dictates from Madrid
Are they afraid of contagion?
They know that it can bounce back in the Basque Country, Flanders, Scotland, Veneto... It opens up an unpleasant can of worms. That is why we will be asked for very large majorities and consistent voting. There is this stress test so that the rest won’t follow if Catalonia gets over the bar. They want to see if this is a bluff or we really want independence. They want to see how the Catalans react to the Spanish state’s dirty war. You have to earn independence.
Will Europe make a move before or after October 1?
After. The turnout will be very important. If a million and a half vote, that’s one thing. On the other hand, if three and a half million vote, a majority of registered voters, that is quite different.
What does that mean?
The second scenario is a very adverse result for Spain as it will legitimise a Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) the following day. And UDI, which already has a democratic mandate in Parliament, would be reinforced by the unilateral referendum for independence the day before.
Icona de cometes They want to see how the Catalans react to the Spanish state’s dirty war
And Spain?
If Spain weren’t afraid, they would act as they did for the “9-N” (citizen participation process on the 9th November 2014): “It will be a barberendum (portmanteau of barbecue and referendum), 500,000 will vote, and the process will end there.” That was Madrid’s calculation. But it turns out 2.3 million voted. The 9-N vote opened the path to the 27-S election majority because it naturalises the belief that a pro-independence project is possible. It was a non-binding ballot. This time, Catalan President Puigdemont and grass roots organisation Òmnium say that the result will be applied. The Spanish Government knows that if they does nothing, it will slip out of their hands.
They won’t allow another 9-N...
They’ve been saying it for months because they’ll lose here. They have no narrative and PM Mariano Rajoy is very unpopular in Catalonia. It is now the left-wing Podemos voters who are setting off the alarms many are ready to vote “yes”. And that did not happen on 9-N. Leader Pablo Iglesias was then still saying “we will change (Spain), I will win, don’t worry and vote for me, there is still hope for a federal solution.” It is now clear that “No They Can’t, No They Couldn’t, and No They Won’t” (in reference to Podemos’ appropriation of Obama’s Yes We Can). A tripartite PSOE-PP-Ciudadanos status quo alliance has been articulated not to touch anything.
For example?
More Spain means more expensive energy, less suburban rail, more bad public policies, more discretionary justice, worse labour market, excess defence and military spending, even if all this means the axing of public, regional and local policies... Everyone has seen what is going on in Madrid, how the PSOE was beheaded with leader Pedro Sánchez’s replacement, a retrenchment of government against change, as the PP impregnates the State and the civil service to the bone and the electoral system allows the PP to govern with 28% of the vote...
What’s setting off the alarms is the Podemos voter
So, the key is the Podemos vote?
The Podemos voters in the Vallès (industrial area near Barcelona) are the main victims of the renewed armoured status quo in Madrid. These are the people who are losing out with the deficient suburban rail, energy, disastrous crumbling public services arising from Spain’s public policies. Although the leadership of Podemos’ local coalition CSQP continues with their co-allies Iniciativa, they have said “we cannot let this go on for another ten years, because they’ll slaughter us.” On Easter Sunday, conservative newspaper La Vanguardia had to do overtime putting out surveys against the referendum, pumping the volume up because “yes” is gaining steam... Spain offers threats, punishments and retaliation. They have no project for Catalonia other than its defeat. That is why, in an open referendum, they’ll lose by two thirds in Catalonia.
Should recognition be made by member states?
We would be in the clouds as with Slovenia and the Baltic States. That is, if the Unilateral Referendum goes very well, on October 2 a UDI would be made and that's when the process of international recognition begins. Experience tells us that it may take weeks or months before anybody recognises you, as with the Baltics. Eventually, Iceland and Norway recognized them. There was also a gradual trickling when it was seen that Slovenia was clearly determined to defend its independence. The New Flemish Alliance has already told us it wants Belgium to recognise us. That’s in an exceptional letter made public by the Belgian Minister of the Interior.
The New Flemish Alliance has told us it wants Belgium to recognise us
A Catalan State within the EU?
Catalonia is becoming more and more European, and in fact it is a European business centre. We are exporting more to Europe than to Spain. Barcelona is the top European airport for flights within Europe. That’s a tremendous figure! We will reach 50 million passengers this year. Barcelona can’t be expelled from anything. Every new business that comes ties Catalonia ever further with Europe. Free movement and the single market are safe, as they will be with Britain.
And Scotland?
The Scottish Parliament will decide depending on the result. There can be no reprisals, neither economic nor financial, because there is much more European investment in London and Britain and trade surplus than the other way around. It's shooting ourselves in the foot if we now boycott, sanction, or set duties and tariffs. It makes no sense. The Spanish view that “Great Britain should lose out” is a question of honour and revenge. Germany has a trade and service surplus with Great Britain.
Let’s do some political-fiction: it is said the Catalan State would have 18 seats in the European Parliament.
Small countries have a bonus number of seats. Look at Bulgaria, Denmark or Belgium... With 550,000 votes, there are only two of us, whilst there are parties there that have 5 seats.
The Spanish view that “Great Britain should lose out” is a question of honour and revenge
Will the affiliation of all parties be rethought?
In an independent Catalonia, each will choose a political family. But that is not important. The single market is assured whatever happens, and the euro too. When the time came, Tsipras discovered in a survey that 70% of the Greeks did not want to leave the euro, and accepted the conditions of the third bail-out. Astonishing. The same goes for France. Marine Le Pen suffered a resounding defeat because in the last week she screwed up with the euro. I can’t tell whether the euro will be a fully consolidated currency in five years’ time.
Who does it depend on?
On southern Europe. There is a very strong anti-euro sentiment in Italy, Greece and France. It’s easier to blame the euro than the centralist structure of France or the corrupt and ineffective government of Italy. It is easier to blame Merkel than to look at the corruption and disaster of Greece's policies. At the moment of truth, I don’t see in any case that the single market and the euro are in jeopardy.
Has it never been questioned?
How is it there have never been Eurosceptics in Catalonia? The Iniciativa new left, the centre-left Esquerra, Christian-Democrats Unió, the socialist PSC, the conservative PP or centre-right PDeCat are all pro-euro, pro-banking union and pro-European Union.